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Race by Race US House Analysis – Part 3 of 8

August 7, 2010
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For Part 3, we turn to the South.  The South has had a heavy lean to the GOP and even after the last cycle, that still holds true.  So even with a large advantage, does the GOP still have the ability to pick up a significant number of seats in the region.  Well, to quote a particular Momma Grizzly, “You Betcha”.

We are starting this cycle with a 37 to 26 advantage for the Republicans.  The Left wing social issues are an enormous motivator here, and now with the Prop 8 overturn in California, social issues could very well join economic issues at the top of the concern list.  And together, they help the GOP tremendously. 

And now, the South!

South

Incumbent = (I)           Democrats listed on the left             Republicans on the right

Alabama   2-5 GOP                                                                +1 GOP

1           David Walter (Constitution)                               Jo Bonner (I)

–         This conservative district does not have a Democrat challenger, so Bonner’s competition comes from the right in the Constitution Party candidate, David Walter.  Third parties almost never win.  BONNER – R Hold

2          Bobby Bright (I)                                               Martha Roby

–         Bobby Bright is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress.  But after barely winning in 2008 in a district held by the GOP for several decades, he has to try to win in a horrible Democratic year.  His opponent Martha Roby hasn’t been a great fundraiser and had to spend a lot of money in her primary.   Depressed Democratic turnout is the difference here.  ROBY – R Takeover

3          Steve Segrest                                                        Mike Rogers (I)

–         This is a safe seat for the incumbent.   ROGERS – R Hold

4         N/A                                                                         Robert Aderholt (I)

–         Ah, the one guy running will probably win.   ADERHOLT – R Hold

5        Steve Raby                                                              Mo Brooks

–         Democrat turned Republican Parker Griffith lost his primary.  The recurring theme this year seems to be that Democrats and self-serving politicians suck.  Griffith left the former to fall into the latter.  Lose-lose.  BROOKS – R Hold

6          N/A                                                                          Spencer Bachus (I)

–         Ah, just like Alabama 4, the only guy running will probably win.   BACHUS – R Hold

7          Terry Sewell                                                           Don Chamberlain

–         Artur Davis retired and left this safe Democratic seat open.  SEWELL – D Hold

Arkansas   3-1 Dem                                                               +2 GOP                        

1            Chad Causey                                                         Rick Crawford

–         Marion Berry decided not to seek re-election this time and has left this seat competitive for the first time ever.  And competitive it is, so competitive that Berry’s retirement should flip this seat.  Arkansas is too conservative.  CRAWFORD – R Takeover

2          Joyce Elliott                                                            Tim Griffin

–         Vic Snyder retired rather than take a chance and lose.  His replacement is more liberal and won’t stand a chance in this district.   GRIFFIN – R Takeover

3          David Whitiker                                                       Steve Womack

–         John Boozman has moved from this seat to a near certain Senate seat and Steve Womack will keep this House seat in GOP hands.   WOMACK – R Hold

4          Mike Ross (I)                                                     Beth Anne Rankin

–         The good news for Republicans is that they are contesting the seat at all.  Former Miss Arkansas Beth Anne Rankin is challenging Mike Ross in the heavily Democratic district and Ross is a member of the Blue Dogs, although he did vote for the final version of the Health Care bill.  Health Care could be a problem for Ross come this fall, but thus far it hasn’t shown itself to be.   He did not vote for the final passage of health care, and that should keep him safe in this district.  ROSS – D Hold

Louisiana       1-6 GOP                                                          +1 GOP

1          Myron Katz                                                            Steve Scalise (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   SCALISE – R Hold

2          Juan LaFonta, Cedric Richmond                        Joseph Cao (I)

–         Freshman Joseph Cao is widely considered one of the two most vulnerable Republicans in the country.  In this majority African American New Orleans baseddistrict, Cao squeaked by incumbent Democrat William Jefferson.  Jefferson was mildly happered by the fact that Federal authorities found $90,000 of bribe money in his freezer.   This time, it’s different, but Cao is showing a strong independent streak and without Obama on the ticket, he may be able to hang on to this seat.   The only poll I’ve seen shows Cao with 54-9 positive approval and garnering over 50% of the vote.  CAO – R Hold

3          Ravi Sangisetty                                                    Hunt Downer, Jeff Landry

–         Democrat Charlie Melancon left this GOP leaning seat to run for Senate.  Sangisetty has raised a lot of money for the race and had a clear primary, but in the 3rd where John McCain won 61% of the vote, a new Democrat will be unlikely to hold this district.  Both Republican’s are solidly conservative, but Landry probably wins the primary – R Takeover

4          David Melville, Steven Gavi                                John Fleming (I)

–         Freshman Fleming barely won this seat 2 years ago, but protected himself well with a huge warchest.  This is a safe seat for the incumbent.   FLEMING – R Hold

5          Tom Gibbs (No Party)                                         Rodney Alexander (I) 

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   ALEXANDER – R Hold

6          Merritt McDonald                                                  Bill Cassidy (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   CASSIDY – R Hold

 7          N/A                                                                         Charles Boustany (I)

–          At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   BOUSTANY – R Hold

Mississippi          3-1 Dem                                                      +1 GOP

1          Travis Childers (I)                                         Alan Nunnelee

–         Childers was first elected in a special election to replace Roger Wickers after he was appointed to the Senate.  Childers knows the district, but with low Democratic turnout in a conservative district.  I think Nunnelee wins this.  NUNNELEE – R Takeover

2          Bennie Thompson (I)                                    Bill Marcy

–                  At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   THOMPSON – D Hold

3          Joel Gill                                                                  Gregg Harper (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.  HARPER – R Hold

4          Gene Taylor (I)                                                Steven Palazzo

–         This is not a slam dunk for the long time incumbent.  Taylor has not raised as much money as one would think and doesn’t have much of a cash on hand advantage over Palazzo.  Taylor could have problems in this race, but for now, he’s a winner.  TAYLOR – D Hold

Tennessee     5-4 Dem                                                             + 3 GOP

1          Mike Clark                                                             Phil Roe (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   ROE – R Hold

2          Dave Hancock                                                       John Duncan (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   DUNCAN – R Hold

3          John Wolfe                                                            Chuck Fleischmann

–         Zach Wamp is retiring and leaving this seat open.  Chuck Fleischmann will hold it.  FLEISCHMANN – R Hold

4          Lincoln Davis (I)                                           Scott DesJarlais

–         Davis is a member of the Blue Dogs, although his voting record tends to be a bit more to the left.  In this rural district, that may give him some problems, but his 100% National Right to Life rating for the last Congress fits the district.  The only poll I know of is from April that showed Davis at 44% with an 11% lead, leaving a lot of undecideds.  This race will be close, but incumbents under 50% are hurting.  DESJARLAIS – R Takeover

5          Jim Cooper (I)                                                Dave Hall

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   COOPER – D Hold

6          Brett Carter                                                         Diane Black

–         Bart Gordon’s retirement turned this seat into a easy takeover for the GOP.   BLACK – R Takeover

7          Greg Rabidoux                                                    Marsha Blackburn (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   BLACKBURN – R Hold

8         Roy Herron                                                            Steve Fincher                   

–         Another Blue Dog retirement in a GOP leaning district could very well have be another GOP take away.  Democrats got a candidate that can hold this seat and who has a ton of money on hand.  Republicans got a candidate who raised the same amount as Herron, but who had to spend much of it in his primary.  This district hasn’t seen a realistically contended Congressional race in a long time, but this year that changes.  In a district that gave John McCain 56%, Fincher will win if he continues to get solid funding.  I think he will.  FINCHER – R Takeover

 9          Steve Cohen (I)                                               Charlotte Bergmann

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   COHEN – D Hold

Texas  12-20 GOP                                                                    +2 GOP

1          Charles Parkes (Libertarian)                             Louie Gohmert (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   GOHMERT – R Hold

2          David Smith (Libertarian)                                  Ted Poe (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   POE – R Hold

 3          John Lingenfelder                                                Sam Johnson (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   JOHNSON – R Hold

4          VaLinda Hathcox                                                  Ralph Hall (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   HALL  – R Hold

5          Tom Berry                                                             Jeb Hensarling (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   HENSARLING  – R Hold

6          David Cozad                                                           Joe Barton (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   BARTON  – R Hold

7          Bob Townsend (Libertarian)                               John Culberson (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   CULBERSON – R Hold

8          Kent Hargett                                                          Kevin Brady (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   BRADY – R Hold

9          Al Green (I)                                                        Steve Mueller

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   GREEN – D Hold

10       Ted Ankrum                                                           Michael McCaul (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   MCCAUL – R Hold

11        James Quillian                                                        Mike Conaway (I)                   

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   CONAWAY – R Hold

12        Tracey Smith                                                         Kay Granger (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   GRANGER – R Hold

13        Mike Barrett (Constitution)                                 Mac Thornberry (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   THORNBERRY – R Hold

14        Robert Pruett                                                         Ron Paul (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   PAUL – R Hold

15        Ruben Hinojosa (I)                                          Eddie Zamora

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   HINOJOSA – D Hold

16        Sylvestre Reyes (I)                                          Tim Besco

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   REYES – D Hold

17       Chet Edwards (I)                                               Bill Flores

–         So, it takes us 17 Congressional districts in Texas to get to a competitive race.   Chet Edwards has been on the GOP radar for many years and he has compiled a reasonably conservative voting record to match his district.  But Flores can match Edwards in spending and in this district this year, Edwards will get retired.  EDWARDS – R Takeover

18       Shiela Jackson Lee (I)                                     John Faulk

–        Sometimes redistricting to kepp your parties seats safe can lead to a district where the radical left wing will thrive.  This is one of those districts.  At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   JACKSON LEE – D Hold

19       Andy Wilson                                                             Randy Neugebauer (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   NEUGEBAUER – R Hold

20       Charles Gonzalez (I)                                       Clayton Trotter

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   GONZALEZ – D Hold

21       Lainey Melnick                                                       Lamar Smith (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.  SMITH – R Hold

22       Kesha Rogers                                                         Pete Olson (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   OLSON – R Hold

23       Ciro Rodriguez (I)                                           Quico Canseco

–         Rodriguez gets his first Hispanic challenger in the conservative Mayor of and he is very well funded.  Obama narrowly won this district last time and Rodriguez was held to under 56%.  There are so many races that are just really tight … CANSECO – R Takeover

24       David Sparks (Libertarian)                                 Kenny Marchant (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   MARCHANT – R Hold

25       Lloyd Doggett (I)                                             Donna Campbell

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   DOGGETT – D Hold

26        Neil Durrance                                                       Michael Burgess (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   BURGESS – R Hold

27        Solomon Ortiz (I)                                           Blake Farenthold

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   ORTIZ – D Hold

28        Henry Cuellar (I)                                            Bryan Underwood

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   CUELLAR – D Hold

29        Gene Green (I)                                                    Roy Morales

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   ORTIZ – D Hold

30          Eddie Bernice Johnson (I)                           Steven Broden

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.  JOHNSON – D Hold

31          Bill Oliver (Libertarian)                                        John Rice Carter (I)                   

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   CARTER – R Hold

 32        Grier Raggio                                                             Pete Sessions (I)

–         At this time, this is a safe seat for the incumbent.   SESSIONS – R Hold

The Western states currently have a 37 to 26 seat advantage for the Republicans.  In 2010, the GOP looks to increase its stranglehold on the area.  It is so bad in this ara that Democrats failed to field a challenger in 11 of 63 districts.  Again, the Democrats will not pick up any GOP seats and they are on defense in many previously safe areas.  This time the GOP will take 10 Democrat seats for a net +10 GOP gain or a 47 to 16 Republican advantage in the Western states for the 112th Congress.  Republicans will need a net total of 39 takeovers to gain control of Congress and the gain of 10 in the South, 11 in the West, plus 9 more in the Mid Atlantic takes them to 30 total.  Three regions and 30 seats.  Oh! where does the pain end for our donkey friends …

The bloodbath continues, so keep your eyes glued to Wild Citizen for Part 4!

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. Nick permalink
    August 7, 2010 10:21 pm

    Mike Ross (here in Arkansas) voted AGAINST the health care bill. This is why he’s wining big time.

    • wildjim permalink*
      August 7, 2010 11:06 pm

      My apologies and thanks for the correction. You are absolutely right, Mr. Ross did vote against the final health care bill. I will correct the text to reflect that.

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