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Race by Race US House Analysis – Part 7 of 8

August 22, 2010
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We’re loadin’ the truck and movin’ to Beverly.  Hills, that is, and that means California.   The Golden State has so many House members that it requires its own section.  Democrats hold a major advantage here of 34 to 19, so the GOP has room to grow.  Or does it?  California is an incumbent paradise where the gerrymanderers have been actively protecting members of both parties.  So, for the 112th Congress, it may be next to impossible to make a whole lot of change to the California delegation.  The very competitive Governor and Senate races may drive turnout, so I’d expect to the hard-core of both ends of the spectrum come out in plenty.  But in what direction are those pesky independents going to shoot and find bubbling crude?  That, my friends, is what November is all about.  The best we can do is to provide part 7 of our sneak preview. 

California, here we come!  I love clichés!  And Pop Culture! 

California 

Incumbent = (I)           Democrats listed on the left             Republicans on the right 

California   34-19 Dem                                                               +2 GOP 

1          Mike Thompson (I)                                         Loren Hanks  

–         If it were Tom Hanks … maybe.  But Tom isn’t a Republican anyway.  THOMPSON – D Hold 

2          Jim Reed                                                                    Wally Herger (I) 

–         Herger is entrenched as the Representative for Life here.  HERGER – R Hold 

3          Ami Bera                                                                    Dan Lungren (I) 

–         Lungren only won by 5 in this Sacramento district.  Now he faces a well-funded doctor in Ami Bera.  If this was 2008, Bera might win.  It’s not, and he won’t.  LUNGREN – R Hold 

4        Clint Curtis                                                                   Tom McClintock (I) 

–         McClintock scored a tiny victory last cycle after moving from Southern California to this Northern California district to run and while he was bogged down by the former GOP rep’s ethical issues.  This time the Democrat has almost no money and McClintock is safe.  MCCLINTOCK – R Hold 

5        Doris Matsui (I)                                                    Paul Smith 

–         Matsui goes back to Washington to represent California’s capitol.  MATSUI – D Hold 

6        Lynn Woolsey (I)                                                Jim Judd 

–         No contest.  WOOLSEY – D Hold 

7        George Miller (I)                                                  Rick Tubbs 

–         Northern San Francisco and Oakland suburbs are a safe Democratic haven, thus explaining the extreme liberalness of George Miller.  MILLER – D Hold 

8         Nancy Pelosi (I)                                                   John Dennis 

–         Speaker Pelosi’s opponent, John Dennis, is well-funded and making an impact in the Speaker’s home turf.  With Cindy Sheehan running again to the left of Pelosi as an anti-war candidate, polls are showing enough division to give the upstart Dennis a good chance at upsetting the Speaker.  And then I woke up …Wild Citizen’s can dream, can’t they? – although to be truthful, Dennis is doing well in fund-raising, I just can’t see San Francisco going for the GOP.  PELOSI – D Hold 

9         Barbara Lee (I)                                                     Jerry Hashimoto 

–         We leave Nancy Pelosi and somehow lurch even further leftward to Barbara Lee in Oakland.  LEE – D Hold 

10        John Garamendi (I)                                       Gary Clift 

–         After a scare in 2008, Garamendi is safe.  GARAMENDI – D Hold 

11        Jerry McNerney (I)                                          David Harmer  

–         Harmer has outraised and outspent the incumbent McNerney in this district that has a slight GOP lean.  Harmer ran and lost a tight special election in the neighboring district – truthfully moving district to district to run always gets my cynical side thinking.  Anyway, Harmer has a great chance to reclaim this seat for the GOP and McNerney supported Cap and Trade and Obamacare.  Harmer has some connections since his father was Ronald Reagan’s Lieutenant Governor.  HARMER – R Takeover 

12        Jackie Speier (I)                                                 Mike Moloney 

–         Virtually no chance of a Republican pickup here.  SPEIER – D Hold 

13        Pete Stark (I)                                                        Forest Baker 

–         Pete Stark has unfortunately been in office since 1972, which is about 38 years too long.  Stark recently said that the federal government has almost no limits on its power.  It’s a shame that this nightmarish caricature of a human being, who, just for starters, during his career has referred to a Congresswoman as a “whore”, threatened to throw a reporter out the window, tried to start a fist fight on the House floor while calling that Congressman a ‘fruitcake’ (hard to believe that is acceptable in San Francisco, let alone anywhere else), and told a constituent that he “wouldn’t dignify you by peeing on your leg. It wouldn’t be worth wasting the urine”, will be re-elected, but his San Francisco district apparently likes an over-reaching government.  STARK – D Hold 

14       Anna Eshoo (I)                                                    Dave Chapman  

–         Chapman does not have the money or the ‘D’ next to his name to challenge in this district. ESHOO – D Hold 

15       Mike Honda (I)                                                    Scott Kirkland 

–         Let’s face it, the Bay Area is very unfriendly to anyone more conservative than Arlen Specter.  HONDA – D Hold 

16        Zoe Lofgren (I)                                                   Edward Gonzalez 

–         … Yawn … huh … oh yeah, Lofgren wins.  LOFGREN – D Hold  

17        Sam Farr (I)                                                          Jeff Taylor 

–         I kind of get jealous thinking about how the extreme left-wing of the left-wing in politics has control of all this beautiful area in California, especially in Monterey.  FARR – D Hold  

18        Dennis Cardoza (I)                                          Mike Berryhill 

–         Cardoza would probably be safe in a normal year and in fact ran unopposed last time.  But Berryhill is a good candidate and is self funding at least a portion of his campaign.  President Obama won here but the 18th typically elects moderate Democrats.  Cardoza’s support of Cap and Trade and Obamacare has put him in jeopardy.  BERRYHILL – R Takeover 

19        Loraine Goodwin                                                   Jeff Denham 

–         George Radonovich retired and Denham will win this normally GOP seat.  DENHAM – R Hold 

20        Jim Costa (I)                                                      Andy Vidak 

–         Costa should win, but Vidak has raised money well and is competitive.  It’s one of those districts to watch in a wave election, so we’ll watch.  COSTA – D Hold 

21        Ruben Macareno                                                   Devin Nunes (I) 

–         Sorry Ruben, but it’s the 21st century and you are waging a write-in campaign for the US House … Why?  To hold Nunes to 97% instead of 100%?  NUNES – R Hold 

22       N/A                                                                             Kevin McCarthy (I)      

–         McCarthey is unopposed and therefore it’s easy to predict.  MCCARTY – R Hold 

23       Lois Capps (I)                                                     Tom Watson  

–         Here’s a nicely Gerrymandered coastline district that stretches nearly from San Francisco to LA, but is about a mile wide.  More beautiful places for the Dems.  Sigh.  CAPPS – D Hold 

24       Tim Allison                                                               Elton Gallegly (I) 

–         No problems for Gallegly.  GALLEGLY – R Hold 

25       Jackie Conaway                                                      Buck McKeon (I) 

–         McKeon won by 15.  This year’s rematch won’t be so close.  MCKEON – R Hold 

26       Russ Warner                                                             David Dreier (I) 

–         Warner held Dreier to a 13 point win in 2008.  And like McKeon, the rematch won’t be as close.  DREIER – R Hold  

27        Brad Sherman (I)                                            Mark Reed 

–         Los Angeles.  Like San Francisco, a Democratic stronghold.  And kind of politically boring.  SHERMAN – D Hold  

28        Howard Berman (I)                                       Merlin Froyd 

–         Berman has been in office since 1982.  His last race he was unopposed and has typically been around 70% with a challenged.  The only way Merlin wins this is if he truly is King Arthur’s mentor and conjours up a little help.  BERMAN – D Hold 

29        Adam Schiff (I)                                                 John Colbert 

–         Could this race get competitive?  Maybe.  Schiff is reported to live in Potomac, MD, which is something that Colbert may be able to exploit, since it would be nice if a Congressman lived in his own district.  Colbert is a good candidate in a solid Democrat place, however, if he could ever win, it would be this year.  But I don’t think so at this point.  SCHIFF – D Hold 

30       Henry Waxman (I)                                         Chuck Wilkerson 

–         It’s Waxman’s seat as long as he wants it.  WAXMAN – D Hold 

31       Xavier Becerra (I)                                             Stephen Smith 

–         East LA will remain Becerra’s seat.  BECERRA – D Hold 

32       Judy Chu (I)                                                        Ed Schmerling       

–         Chu wins easily.  CHU – D Hold 

33       Karen Bass (I)                                                     James Andion  

–         Bass is the first female Speaker of the California House and the next Representative from the 33rd.  BASS – D Hold 

34       Lucille Roybal-Allard (I)                            Wayne Miller  

–         A win is expected for the Democrat.  ROYBAL-ALLARD – D Hold 

35      Maxine Waters (I)                                             Bruce Brown 

–         Maxine Waters is having some ethics issues with allegedly using her office to get federal assistance for a bank where her husband sits on the Board of Directors.  The Cook Political Rep[ort lists this seat as the 21st most Democratic.  As a comparison, Joseph Cao won an election over William Jefferson in Louisiana after Jefferson was found with $90,000 in his freezer and was indicted for bribery.  Cao won by less than 3% in the 34th most Democratic district.  Waters has only been accused of something that most people think politicians do anyway.  WATERS – D Hold 

36       Jane Harmon (I)                                               Mattie Fein 

–         With her allegations of interceding to kill a spy investigation for a House Chairmanship behind her, Harmon should easily win re-election.  HARMON – D Hold  

37        Laura Richardson (I)                                    Star Parker 

–         Star Parker has some celebrity appeal as a conservative commentator and former welfare queen with an interesting life story.  But Richardson is a Democrat and this is Compton.  RICHARDSON – D Hold  

38        Grace Napolitano (I)                                     Robert Vaughn 

–         Napolitano will be re-elected.  NAPOLITANO – D Hold 

39        Linda Sanchez (I)                                            Larry Andre 

–         Sanchez’s district is a little more moderate than some of the neighboring ones, but if Sanchez loses here, the GOP will be completely veto proof.  SANCHEZ – D Hold 

40        Christina Avalos                                                    Ed Royce (I) 

–         McCain won this district and Royce carried it by a wide margin.  This is not competitive.  ROYCE – R Hold 

41        Pat Meagher                                                              Jerry Lewis (I) 

–         Very Republican seat, Lewis wins.  LEWIS – R Hold 

42       Michael Williamson                                               Gary Miller (I)      

–         Miller has an easy upcoming election in this Orange County district.  MILLER – R Hold 

43       Joe Baca (I)                                                           Scott Folkins  

–         The city and surrounding area of San Bernardino definitely tilts to the left and Baca will be enjoying his personal re-election night.  BACA – D Hold 

44       Bill Hedrick                                                               Ken Calvert (I) 

–         This formerly reliable GOP district gave Republicans a scare by barely favoring Obama and sending Calvert back to DC with a 3 point win.  How much of that had to do with Calvert’s ethical problems or an ideological swing in the district, we will find out this November.  In the meantime for this House rematch, Calvert has posted very good fundraising numbers and should win in this economic environment.  CALVERT – R Hold 

45       Steve Pougnet                                                          Mary Bono Mack (I) 

–         The Palm Springs district has been a GOP area for a long time, but it is beginning to turn Democrat led by a sizable gay population that supports Democrats and includes Mack’s opponent, the Mayor of Palm Springs.  Pougnet has a shot in this district, but I think he should have held off another cycle.  Sometimes parties don’t like to recycle their losers.  Mack may win by a tighter margin and she may lose sometime.  But this year is not that sometime.  MACK – R Hold 

46       Ken Arnold                                                                Dana Rohrabacher (I) 

–         Arnold has little money and won’t compete with the long-time incumbent.  ROHRABACHER – R Hold  

47        Loretta Sanchez (I)                                         Van Tran 

–         Tran is looking to become the 2nd Vietnamese immigrant Member of Congress and the district has a significant Vietnamese descended 

Van Tran

 population.  The 47th is lost in the middle of several GOP districts and was previously represented by the very conservative B1 Bob Dornan.  I think I may have a weird gut feeling about Tran being able to pull this one out, but I need more evidence…  SANCHEZ – D Hold  

48        Beth Krom                                                                 John Campbell (I) 

–         Campbell has a better opponent than he has faced previously, but he is also facing her in a great GOP year.  CAMPBELL – R Hold 

49        Howard Katz                                                             Darrell Issa (I) 

–         This district to the north of San Diego is strong GOP country and therefore, safe for Issa.  ISSA – R Hold 

50       Francine Busby                                                        Brian Bilbray (I) 

–         This will be Busby’s third attempt to take this seat, and it should be her third failure to win it.  BILBRAY – R Hold 

51       Bob Filner (I)                                                         Nick Popaditch 

–         Popaditch has some notoriety as an author and he is said to have a pretty good ground game, but little money and this is California.  This is a year that Filner could be beatable, but so far, I don’t think so.  FILNER – D Hold 

52       Ray Lutz                                                                      Duncan Hunter (I) 

–         Duncan Hunter succeeded his father, Duncan Hunter, in 2008 and the Duncan Hunter name will go to Washington again.  HUNTER – R Hold 

53       Susan Davis (I)                                                    Michael Crimmons  

–         Susan Davis won this seat in 2000 and she will continue to serve the residents of the 53rd after November 2nd.  DAVIS – D Hold 

  

California’s financial turmoil won’t help any incumbents, but the people of this state are really well corralled into areas to prevent much electoral carnage.   California’s districts are way to stable to be much fun, but in the first post-“Change” election, there is some movement to watch, such as the 2 turnovers we project.  But there are a few other races that could tip if the wind blows just right… or left.  The Democrat House advantage of 34 to 19 will shrink to 32 to 21.  And in a more “normal” year, there could be GOP casualties as well, but if the low hangers weren’t picked in the last 2 elections, it is likely that they have escaped any damage.  

So that moves our overall total to a 58 seat GOP gain through 7 of our 8 regions – even better than 1994 for the Grand Old Party.  Next we examine 5 states in the Rust Belt to wrap up this series and get a final US House tally that will show the newest obstacle, led by Speaker Boehner, that President Obama will face while pushing his agenda.

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11 Comments leave one →
  1. August 22, 2010 5:05 am

    I finally decided to write a comment on your blog. I just wanted to say good job. I really enjoy reading your posts.

  2. August 22, 2010 1:47 pm

    6 Lynn Woolsey (I) Jim Judd

    – No contest. WOOLSEY – D Hold
    ———————————————————————–

    This is not 2008. Jim Judd has many Democrats wondering where their party went, and I am one of them. I am taking a good look at the person, not the party. In talking to my other Democrat and Independent business associates, they say the same. I am a Democrat, changing to “Decline to State” and voting for Jim Judd. Lynn Woolsey is way too left for me.

  3. August 22, 2010 5:00 pm

    Jim, don’t be so quick to call CA51 a dem hold. I’ve been all over this district, Nick Popaditch is fast becoming a rock star, and I’m talking everywhere he goes, with great response from democrats and idependents alike. Filner can and will be beat, and I think you will be quite surprised when the new contribution numbers come out.

  4. August 22, 2010 5:41 pm

    I would put Popaditch ahead of Filner any day. Popaditch is a very strong candidate. He can beat Filner. Filner’s writings stink of the status quo: lots of rhetoric and spending but no self control which translates into deadly government deficits. When I saw his border security stuff, I thought he was joking. His ideas simply are not good for #51. In contrast, Popaditch’s character has been proven in battle and is the force that can unite families of all kinds in #51. He’s easy to understand and connect with. He gets you believing in the country and in yourself again.

  5. wildjim permalink*
    August 23, 2010 12:23 am

    Thanks for reading everyone!

    Nick Popaditch is a great American and ‘Rock Star’ and he could make an excellent Congressman. I also don’t rule out his ability to win, but his money situation needs to improve a bit (hopefully Marty’s right and those numbers are really good!) to get that conservative message out, although that awful “eye patch” cartoon was worth a ton of publicity, and allowed Popaditch to be “on the stage”, as it were. It is a race I’m watching.

    As for the Judd-Woolsey race, the last time a Republican got within 20 points was against Barbara Boxer in ’82, whereas the 51st was Republican until 2002. Even taking an average nationwide swing of 15%, this race, while not impossible, just doesn’t flip for me. Although it would be nice …

  6. Benito permalink
    August 23, 2010 10:27 pm

    The Republicans are so funny, when the economy is good you say let’s all celebrate “Cinco de Mayo, my brothers” but when the economy is down “it’s all your fault, you damn immigrant”. When most Americans (with Latin America roots) go to the polls this November we will remember that the GOP has gone on a nationwide rant in proposing and passing several anti-immigration legislation and have continue to blame us for the flat economy or worse. We will remember who stands with us and who stands against us, so trying to stop it now is somewhat funny, but go ahead, you will not change our minds. Is does not help that the GOP has recently attacked the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Your hate made you do it, in November; you will reap what you have sown.

  7. wildjim permalink*
    August 24, 2010 2:27 pm

    When the economy was good just a few short years ago, we still were trying to secure the borders against ILLEGAL immigration. Conservatives, along with most people favor immigration because immigration is one of those things that keeps America fresh. But one reason that people come here is because of our rule of law. The United States is basically fair, and you are unlikely to be jailed or murdered for speaking your mind. But with ILLEGAL immigrants, those people flaunt the laws of this country as soon as they get here. There is a way to come to the United States, a process to follow. But illegals cross the border in ways that BREAK OUR LAWS. Therefore they start out as criminals. If immigrants, like my grandparents, come to this country in the proper way, Americans should, and usually do, welcome them. By the way, my Grandfather came to this country as a young boy and still had to wait 7 years AFTER becoming an adult to become a citizen. He, and most immigrants of the time, wouldn’t have dreamed of breaking the law and then DEMANDING citizenship like spoiled children. Tell me why people can’t still do that today?
    As far as the flat economy, it has very little to do with immigration, illegal or otherwise. Who we blame is a socialist leaning, Democratic Congress that took the reigns of power in January 2007, A President in George Bush who gave in to that Congress’s positions on too many occassions, and a left-wing extremest President Obama who has exploded the debt beyond anything ever seen before and who has created such unfriendly business conditions and uncertainty that businesses are afraid to hire.
    We simply want our Constitution followed and our laws obeyed. It’s not asking too much.

  8. Benito permalink
    September 2, 2010 12:09 am

    Wild: This is all about politics and November 2010 and nothing more. The most outrageous racial profile law was AZ SB1070, the one that failed in our US Courts that the proponents claimed was Constitutional. The current GOP wants to decide for you when they will apply our Constitution and Bill of Rights in the bent minds (Good luck with that). Considering that all the numbers of crime are down In AZ (even ex-governor Janet Napolitano agrees).

    So when we saw Brewer signing a bill (that she probably did not even read), lying about the crime rates in AZ, and now we find out that she is in the pockets of PRIVATE PRISONS who stand to benefit with the increase Federal jailing, please what BS.

    So quit lying, with your pathelic rhetoric, stand up and be men or women, no, no I am sorry your leaders are now just Birthers, Baggers and Blowhards and will continue to take the GOP towards obscurity because they are no longer a party of ideas, just of empty suits. Good bye, fawell….

    • September 2, 2010 1:53 pm

      Did you read AZ SB1070 yourself? It’s only 7 pages. Here’s a link if you need it – http://www.azdatapages.com/sb1070.html

      The language in the law mirrors federal immigration law. That means that Arizona’s legislature is reinforcing the ability of state and local police to enforce the federal immigration laws. http://tinyurl.com/24bptur

      That practice is not only well established in case law, it’s also common sense. Arizona and other border states are more directly effected by illegal immigration than the federal government. So – they have a greater interest in enforcing immigration law. Washington D.C. isn’t effected at all, so they don’t place a high priority on it.

      Could it be that you really object to the federal immigration laws? That you oppose any enforcement of any kind at the border?

      Your repeated attempts to make this issue about race or conspiracy theories just illustrate how weak your argument is. I don’t really understand your accusations. Are you suggesting that “Mexican” is a race? Do you think other people of southern European ancestry, like “Italians” and “Greeks” are also separate racial groups?

      I am not accustomed to such intensely detailed racial thinking. Probably that is because an individual’s ancestry or genetics are unimportant to me. People should be judged by their words and actions – their character, as MLK Jr. put it – and nothing else.

      Perhaps you’d care to explain how your suggestion that the law should not apply equally to people that you perceive as a separate racial group isn’t a bigoted and hateful position?

  9. Benito permalink
    September 7, 2010 10:32 pm

    In the last four months Jan Brewer has been caught lying, three times and counting.

    The comments made on June 16, 2010, and June 27, 2010, clearly indicates that the Brewer says that immigrants are beheading people in the United States desert. She first ran away from the question and the press when confronted with the question. She finally when to FOX/ FAKE News to recant her lie.

    When Brewer was confronted with the fact the two of her top Advisors (Paul Senseman, Chuck Coughlin) are lobbyist for “Private Prisons” giant CCA she first ran away from the question and the press.

    In an attempt to gain sympathy, she first said her father had died in Germany fighting the Nazi in World War II (which ended 1945) but of course we find out the truth that her father was never in Germany and died in California in 1955. Do you see a trend here?

    Brewer signed into law SB 1070 Bill (Did she even read it?), lied about the crime rates in AZ (even Janet Napolitano knows that all crimes rates went down), and now we find out that she is in the pockets of PRIVATE PRISONS who stand to benefit with the increase Federal jailing, and thus they will pay her back, I wonder if it has to do anything about the fact that her son was transferred to a brand new prison, he was convicted for rape and sexual assault, I guess the fruit does not fall far the tree.

    “Private Prisons Lie”

    “AZ Crime Rates”

    “Father Lie”
    http://vodpod.com/watch/3771595-charles-krauthammer-rips-jan-brewer-for-lying-about-her-father-dying-in-ww2

  10. RESS permalink
    November 6, 2010 3:30 pm

    RACIAL CITIZENSHIP CONFERENCE 2012

    While the Racial Citizenship Conference 2012 is being planned please feel free to get familiar with the new and improved colour coded approved and extended

    “RACE CODES”.

    http://raceequalitysecretservice.blogspot.com/2010/11/racial-citizenship-conference-2012.html

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