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A Look at the August 24th Primaries

August 24, 2010
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On Tuesday, 8/24 the states of Alaska, Arizona, Florida, and Vermont hold their primaries.  Some of these races have been on our radar for a while now, and it will be interesting to watch them go across the finish line.  But the most intriguing thing is how the Tea Parties continue to fair.  Every year the discussion changes to some group of people who are pissed off and seem to vote as a block.  We had Angry White Men in 1994, and then it was Soccer Moms for a couple of election cycles.  This year, it’s Tea Partiers.  

The best examples of Tea Party strength will be seen in Alaska with Joe Miller’s insurgent campaign.  Miller was starting to catch fire after a Palin endorsement, but it may be too little, too late.  JD Hayworth in Arizona could have pulled Tea Party support, but I think he was too flawed a candidate.  Truthfully, showing people how to work the system for taxpayer money by hawking government spending in an infomercial may have killed him.  Also in Arizona, Tea Party backed candidates Jesse Kelly should win his primary and Pam Gorman is more of an underdog.  And Florida’s GOP gubernatorial campaign that features an-anti Obamacare organizer in Rick Scott, has gone very negative and may be turning people off to both candidates.

It’s usually difficult to pick winners in crowded primaries, even if they are heavily polled.  But us Wild Citizen’s like to have some fun, so we’ll give it our best shot in some selected races.  As always!

Governor

–        Berkowitz wins the Democrat nod to face, and lose to, GOP nominee and incumbent Sean Parnell.

Senate

–          Incumbent Lisa Murkowski is facing a serious threat from the right in Tea Partier Joe Miller.  Miller is under-funded but has the Tea party and hard-core grassroots.  He is also closing the gap in polling, but is not leading, or even that close.  I think the open primary system that lets Independents vote, helps Murkowski.

House

–          Sheldon Fisher won’t beat long time Rep, Don Young, and in November, Young will beat Democrat Harry Crawford.

ARIZONA

Governor

–          Once upon a time, Governor Jan Brewer wasn’t going to win her GOP primary.  Now she wins that and the general against Terry Goddard.

Senate

–          This was supposed to be the Arizona Clash of the Titans.  It will turn out to be The Crush of the Titan, as in the Titan McCain crushing JD Hayworth.  I’ve never liked John McCain, and I know that he will go back to the liberal, amnesty loving Senator we all know after the election, but there’s the small consolation that I was never sure that Hayworth was going to be any better.

House 

–          CD1 – Paul Gosar is the leading candidate to repeal and replace Ann Kirkpatrick.

–          CD3 – There are 10 people in this race, and in the last survey, around 30% undecided. This could go to anyone, but I still think Quayle holds on, but Gorman is getting a lot of conservative press.

–          CD5 – It is likely that David Schweikert will have the pleasure of facing off with Harry Mitchell.

–          CD8 – It’s an outsider year. Jonathan Paton would be a good Congressman, but Jesse Kelly has money and is not in office.  Kelly wins.

–          Incumbents will likely win the other districts.

FLORIDA

Governor

–          The Democrat side is easy with Alex Sink winning.  The GOP has been back and forth, but the momentum, I think, is with Bill McCollum going into primary day so he should beat Rick Scott, but the polls have been inconsistent.

Senate

–          The GOP got ‘both’ its candidates in Rubio and Crist (OK- Crist is now a member of the Charlie Crist Really Wants To Be Senator Party).  For the Dems, it looks as if Kendrick Meek is pulling away from Jeff Greene.

House 

–          CD2 – Allen Boyd is in trouble, and the GOP candidate is likely to be Steve Southerland.

–          CD 5 – Rich Nugent should win the GOP Primary and will therefore be the next Congressman from this district.

–          CD8 – Daniel Webster gets the nod to remove Alan Grayson from the US House, although it wouldn’t be a great shock to see Kurt Kelly win that race either.

–          CD17 – Nine person primaries with little polling are hard to call.  The general feel is that it will be Gibson or Wilson.  We’ll stick with Wilson.

–          CD24 – Craig Miller had the lead in the last poll with lots of undecideds.  My guess is that he will win.

–          CD25 – David Rivera should be the GOP nominee to face Joe Garcia, the likely Dem, in the race to replace Mario Diaz-Balart.

VERMONT

Governor

–          Brian Dubie is the GOP nominee, and in a crowded primary, Deb Markowitz is probably the favorite for the Dems.

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