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More from the Alaska Senate Race

August 30, 2010
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Here’s the latest on Alaska.  Joe Miller leads by 1,668 votes in the GOP Senate primary-a number that won’t change until the state Department of Elections begins counting the absentee ballots on August 31st.

According to the Anchorage Daily News, there are 13,740 absentee ballots and 9,069 disputed ballots, plus 663 early ballots, for a total of 23,472 votes to be counted.  With Democrats votes amounting to roughly one-third of the total votes counted from primary day, it would probably be safe to take away 7,824 votes leaving approximately 15,648 Republican voting ballots.  A number of ballots, especially disputed ones, will be invalidated, but even without taking any away, Lisa Murkowski would need to capture more than 55% to win.  That is unlikely, so Joe Miller is a reasonably safe bet to be the next Senator from Alaska.

However. 

The mudslinging has begun with accusations from the Miller campaign that Murkowski is “lawyering up” to challenge election results and that the National Republican Senate Committee is sending Murkowski help, and the Murkowski campaign has called Miller “paranoid”.  In response, the National GOP has stated that they will support whomever wins the primary while the Club for Growth will assist the Miller campaign with the counting of ballots.

In addition, Murkowski is mulling an independent bid through the Libertarian Party because she may not be able to bear giving up her family’s Senate seat.  In response, the Miller campaign tweeted “What’s the difference between selling out your party’s values and the oldest profession?” which caused an uproar within the Murkowski campaign, although Miller stated that he was taking about the Libertarian Party, not Murkowski.

For those who are curious, there has been some post primary polling by PPP, a Democratic firm, showing Miller with a 47 to 39 lead over Democrat Scott McAdams in a 2-way race, and Miller leading in a 3-way race 38 (Miller) to 34 (Murkowski) to 22 (McAdams).  The poll also shows Miller with a 52% unfavorable rating.  Those results seem to show that Miller may have a better chance in a 3-way race, especially if Murkowski were to stay out of the general and support McAdams, which given the tone of the primary, is possible.

 And we will keep following this as it continues to develop.

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