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Senate Primaries in NH and DE

September 13, 2010

Eight states are having primaries tomorrow, but only 2 are having primaries that may or may not change the competitiveness of the November general.

In Delaware, Christine O’Donnell has pulled ahead of Mike Castle in the race for the GOP Senate nomination.  There is no doubt she is surging right now and with backing of the TEA Party, Jim DeMint, and Sarah Palin, she looks as if she can, and I think will, defeat the long time Delaware political figure Castle.  Wild Citizen’s generally love the most freedom oriented, small government person they can get, but in this case we are troubled by Ms. O’Donnell’s appearances, answers to personal questions, and baggage.  For instance, there have been several alleged issues such as filing a gender discrimination lawsuit, unpaid school loans, personal college degree embellishments, allegations of Castle supporters following her, tax issues, and a “who cares” response to questions asked about how she lived on an income of $5,900, all questions that will come up in a general election cycle and will require more than a “Who cares” answer because, right or wrong, there are people who do care.  While I think that O’Donnell is going to win this one, I have little faith in her ability to win the general.  However, for free market and limited government types, does it matter all that much if Castle wins?  Yes, I’d still rather see a moderate Mike Castle on my side 60% of the time as opposed to a liberal Chris Coons on my side 0%.  But if I thought O’Donnell could win the general, I’d be thrilled to see her knock off Castle.  What a difference from a race that just a few months ago had everyone measuring the curtains for Castle’s Senate office. 

New Hampshire polls show Ovide Lamontagne continuing to gain on GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte.  Ayotte has been stagnating in the mid-thirties for months while the field beneath her has been shifting.  Lamontagne just happens to be surging at the perfect time and has momentum.  For those folks who aren’t crazy about Ayotte – potentially 63% of the GOP electorate – Lamontagne may be the protest candidate.  And unlike Delaware, Lamontagne will beat the Democrat in the general.

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