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The Last Senate Update – Unless a Candidate Explodes

October 26, 2010

One week out and here is my final prediction for the US Senate … Republicans will pick up these 11 seats:

Arkansas – John Boozman

California – Carly Fiorina

Colorado – Ken Buck

Illinois – Mark Kirk

Indiana – Dan Coats

Nevada – Sharon Angle

North Dakota – John Heoven

Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey

Washington – Dino Rossi

West Virginia – John Raese

Wisconsin – Ron Johnson

While holding all of their open seats …

Alaska – Joe Miller

Florida – Marco Rubio

Kentucky – Rand Paul

Missouri – Roy Blunt

New Hampshire – Kelly Ayotte

Ohio – Rob Portman

Utah – Mike Lee

… and having all their current Senators win.  A ‘plus eleven’ 2010 leaves the Senate a 52 to 48 GOP Majority.  But the real question is “How will they govern?”  Of the above groups, they are all Conservative except Kirk and Coats, but we need to wonder just how much the others will go along to get along in DC.  From what I can tell, there should be no worries about Senator -Elects Ken Buck, Sharon Angle, Pat Toomey, John Raese, Ron Johnson, Joe Miller, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and probably Rob Portman.  That gives us half of the newbies on the side of people over government. 

Current Senators who fall in that category are Tom Coburn, David Vitter (warts and all), Richard Burr, Jeff Sessions, Pat Roberts, Mike Johanns, Jim Risch, John Barrasso, Jim Inhofe, and, of course, Jim DeMint.  I tend to think that Scott Brown votes his conscious more than leadership pressure, so maybe we can count him in the good egg category.  That gives us nearly 40% of the Republican Caucus, and we must remind the Coats’, Boozman’s, Fiorina’s, Ayotte’s, Rossi’s and Blunt’s just how they got here.  And we must remind them constantly.

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