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Senate election predictions 2012

November 4, 2012

Finally, I’ve gotten around to this even though I’ve been thinking about it for a while.

We know that Democrats are going to hold their seats in California, Delaware, Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Minnesota, Washington, and West Virginia and Republicans will hold theirs in Wyoming, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Utah. But what about the others that have shown competitive signs?

So many changes as the races have changed, tightened and moved solidly to one candidate or another. But in the end, here are the top 20 Senate races in order of likelyhood to change parties, starting with the 20th most likely.

20. Texas – Ted Cruz vs Paul Sadler – Sadler is a good candidate in a different state, but this is Texas and Cruz is also a good candidate. This seat becomes more conservative after Ted Cruz is sworn in.

Likely GOP hold

19. NJ – Menendez vs Joe Kyrillos – 3 polls in July most recently with Menendez in the mid 40’s and Kyrillos 9 back in the only LV poll. And with the recent allegations of Menendez, ah, ‘stiffing’, a couple of prostitutes coming out, this could be a problem for him. But he’s a Democrat, this is New Jersey, and with the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, I doubt anyone will notice or care.

Likely Democrat hold

18. Hawaii – Mazie Hirono vs Linda Lingle – This is a rematch of 2002 when Lingle beat Hirono for governor by 5 points.  This time it’s for national office with native son, Barack Obama on the ticket. I used to think this will be close, but not anymore. Hirono wins the rematch.

Likely Democrat hold

17. Michigan – Stabenow vs Hoekstra – Stabenow is definitely the favorite here especially after the democrats pulled their usual race card on Hoekstra for his Super Bowl add, then this race has tightened for a bit, but has solidified for Stabenow.

Likely Democrat hold

16. New Mexico – Heinrich vs Wilson – This state has just gone too far to the left for a squishy Republican like Heather Wilson to compete.

Leans Democrat Hold

15. Florida – Nelson vs Mack – This one is still within reach of Mack, but Nelson looks like he has pulled away to a large enough lead against another lightweight “name” politician.

Leans Democrat Hold

14. Nevada – Heller vs Berkley – Even though Nevada keeps electing Harry Reid, this state hasn’t gone as far overboard as the those East Coast states in their love of corrupt democrats. Which means Senator Heller is likely to keep his seat.

Leans GOP hold

13. Connecticut – McMahon vs Murphy – This race once looked promising for McMahon, but as normal, corrupt Democrats win the day in places run by Democrats where American ideals are put down and the Constitution is shunned.

Leans Democrat Hold

12. Missouri – Akin vs McCaskill – Akin was probably the worst Republican to run against McCaskill and has put himself above his beliefs and his party by staying in a race he is likely to lose due to his own stupidity. This race is still closer than it should be, and with Mitt Romney running away with Missouri, Akin might get pulled across the finish line. But I doubt it.

Leans Democrat Hold

11. Ohio – Brown vs Mandel – The polls in this race have shown a consistent but small lead for Senator Brown. Josh Mandel hasn’t run a great race and is in it still because of a ton of outside money. Mandel could still win, but I think he jumped the shark in trying to rise too high, too fast. Not everyone is blessed with Obama charisma.

Leans Democrat hold

10. Arizona – Jeff Flake vs Richard Carmona – I’m surprised by how close this race is, but Flake should hold on to this GOP seat.

Leans GOP Hold

9. Virginia – Allen vs Kaine – Polls show Kaine leading by 1 more often than not, but Democrat enthusiasm is down in Virginia, especially around the DC suburbs. I expect George Allen to eek this out and return to the Senate.

Leans GOP Takeover

8. Pennsylvania – Casey vs Smith – Senator Bob Casey has run the same race as he did 6 years ago … none. But in 2006, he was the challenger against a very unpopular Rick Santorum. This time Tom Smith has run a relentless race against a Senator who is only in that position because his dad has the same name. Not this time.

Leans GOP Takeover

7. Wisconsin –  Thompson vs Baldwin –  Another race down to the wire, but I think the GOP ground game and Thompson being a popular former governor pull him across the finish line over Tammy Baldwin, who is to the left of Barack Obama. 

Leans GOP Takeover

6. Montana – Rehberg vs Tester – Denny Rehberg has been ahead by a small but steady amount for the majority of this race. In a presidential year with Tester’s vote for Obamacare in a GOP leaning state, Tester remaining a senator is difficult to see.

Leans GOP Takeover

5. Indiana – Mourdock vs Donnelly – This race is closer than it should be, but my guess is a lot of moderate Republicans are upset about Mourdock and the right’s depiction of Dick Lugar. I think this was always a close one, but his statement on rape and abortion and God didn’t need to be said in this sound bite world and will cost the GOP the race.

Leans Democrat Takeover

4. Massachusetts – Brown vs Warren – Warren is a bat crap crazy leftist and Senator Scott Brown is a moderate. But in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren will win. Hard to believe the level of idiocy that prevails in that state.

Leans Democrat Takeover

3. North Dakota – Berg vs Heitkamp – Heitkamp is personally popular, Rick Berg, not so much. But it’s a presidential year in a red state and even though North Dakota has been GOP presidential and Democrat down ballot, the overall polarization of the electorate will pull Berg to victory.

Leans GOP Takeover

2. Nebraska – Fischer vs Kerrey – Deb Fischer will be the next Senator from Nebraska. Should be some nice Tea Party voting there. This race has closed but the recycled Mr. Kerrey will stay on history’s ash heap.

Likely GOP Takeover

1. Maine – King vs Summers vs Dill – For a while this looked like a runaway for King, but lately the race has been tightening with Charlie Summers closing the gap. It’s still King’s to lose, but Summers is making a charge at it. The only real question in this race is whether King will caucus as a good Democrat or caucus as a liberal Chaffee Republican.

Likely Independent takeover

Which has this Senate Class going from 22 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and 1 independent (Lieberman) to 19 Democrats, 13 Republicans, and 1 independent (King – D?). That gives us a 50 Republican, 48 Democrat and 2 Independent (caucusing as Democrats) or a 50 – 50 senate led by the tie breaking Vice President. 2 more years of  extreme Senate gridlock. Enjoy!


Super Tuesday #2

March 7, 2012

Santorum has won Tennessee now, is leading in North Dakota and in Ohio (although Ohio has a lot of votes to count yet).

Santorum is the best Republican to take on Obama in the fall. The race against Obama is going to be decided in the Midwest rust belt states, Santorum is a genuine Midwesterner and that means an awful lot in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and so on.  It’s a populist region and Santorum best exemplifies that spirit.  All the Republicans will win the south, lose the northeast and northwest, and split in the Southwest.  Santorum understands it and has crafted the right message.

Super Tuesday Update

March 7, 2012

So far it’s Romney in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia … no surprises there. Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Oklahoma and leading in Tennessee and Ohio. Again, no surprises. And Ron Paul … uh … no wins. And once again, no surprises.

Rush Limbaugh vs Sandra Fluke

March 3, 2012

I wish I could say that I find it amazing that the media, Democrats, moderate Republicans, and the like would support Sandra Fluke after her description by Rush Limbaugh as a “slut”, but I don’t. It just shows the standard insanity of the left and the standard lack of courage on the center right.                                                                         


But before jumping to any conclusions, let’s think about it … just what is a ‘slut’?

For most people, the word ‘slut’ is used to describe someone (usually a woman) of loose morals who has excessive intimate relations, and is typically young and unmarried. Personally, I see the word as gender neutral and have referred to many men as sluts myself. But I digress.

Instead, let’s look at the numbers. Let us say the price of the birth control pill is $50 per month. Multiply that time 3 years of law school (36 month for the liberals among us) and you get $1,800 or $600 per year. OK, it may require a little budgeting for a college student, but not all that much. But Ms. Fluke states that it costs $3,000 over those 3 years for birth control. So that leaves us $400 dollars per year in the sex protection budget. Hmm … I will assume that the remainder goes into the condom budget. Admittedly, it’s been a while since I’ve bought condoms (happily married), but I don’t think that $.50 per condom is too far out of the ballpark. So $400 dollars per year equals 800 condoms and 800 condoms divided by 365 days is approximately 2.2 condoms per day.

If I remember from my college days that most college students are not monogamous during their entire stay, that men do occasionally provide their own condoms, which would increase the frequency of use, and that I cannot think of anyone I ever knew who used that many condoms in a year, well, it just might be that Mr. Limbaugh made a good point (as he often does).

The real bottom lines are these …

First, it is not my responsibility to cover your birth control.
Second, Ms. Fluke really should take a long look in the mirror. With 1000 condoms used per year, her parents must be so proud.

Duty of the AG

March 2, 2011

Eric Holder, by his own admission, is not fit to serve as the US Attorney General.  In the linked video below, he claims that a desire to prosecute a New Black Panther member caught on video intimidating voters by wielding a police baton a great disservice to his people.  His reasoning is that voter intimidation in the South during the 1960’s was of a greater significance to history than modern voter intimidation.

Watch Eric Holder’s Comments Here.

There’s a problem with Holder’s assertions.  As the US Attorney General, it’s his sworn duty to prosecute cases based on the law, not judge the law’s relative importance in history.  He is required to do this on behalf of all Americans equally, not just a select few he considers to be his people.

I do not know if his people are determined by race, ethnicity, ideology or some other factor.  It makes no difference, because, despite his assurances to the contrary, he is clearly making determinations about which cases to prosecute based on his identity as a member of this select group.

Holder’s statements indicate that he is not capable of fulfilling the duties his position requires.  He should resign immediately.  If he doesn’t, the President should fire him.

The New Face of the GOP?

January 20, 2011

Strong faces with strong character behind them.  The Republican Party could do a lot worse than choosing Herman Cain or Allen West as a Presidential Candidate in 2012.  Certainly, they did far worse in 2008.

After hearing them speak, I’ll find it much easier to support either of these men than I did John McCain.  I’d be overjoyed, actually.  With McCain, I had to tamp down my disgust long enough to vote for him.  That’s the closest I could get to “supporting” him.

In fact, if Obama hadn’t been so obviously Marxist, I almost certainly would have voted for him.  Not because he would have been a better president – I think Obama’s done a worse job than McCain would have been capable of.  Just to prevent McCain from being responsible for further damaging the country and spreading his disgrace to conservatives in general.

Hopefully, the GOP will choose Herman Cain, Allen West, or another strongly principled candidate like them in 2012.  (Chris Christie comes to mind.)  We’re going to need someone like that, if we’re going to pull the country back from the precipice.



January 12, 2011

What can we really learn from an image?  Sometimes, a lot.  More often, our eyes can deceive us.  The mugshot of the psychotic and evil murderer, Jared Loughner may tell us something about him.  When I first saw it, the smirking, lumpy, hairless face reminded me of something… It took me a while to remember.  It was a Woody Harrelson movie from the ’90s.  Natural Born Killers.

Does this mean that Oliver Stone and Woody Harrelson caused or inspired Loughner’s actions? Are they responsible?  Do they have blood on their hands?

No.  That’s ridiculous.

But I’d bet good money that Loughner has seen the movie.  I’d go so far as to say he was a fan of it.  And I’d even suggest that the reason he shaved his head and eyebrows before going on his murder spree was to look like Harrelson did in this movie.  He was putting on a costume so that, in his mind, he would be a Natural Born Killer, too.

Or it could just be a coincidence.

We all have a desire to make sense out of the senseless.  But, sometimes, there isn’t any sensible answer.  Sometimes people are just plain crazy.